The Nationals recently clinched the NL East for the second year in a row, meaning that for the second consecutive year, playoff baseball will be played in the District. As of now, the Nationals are seven games back of the Los Angeles Dodgers, owners of baseball’s best record. Assuming the Nationals do not catch the Dodgers for the first seed, they will play the winner of the National League Central, currently a three-team race between the Cubs, Brewers, and Cardinals. At 82-66, the Cubs currently lead the division, but they haven’t clinched yet. The Brewers are four games back at 78-70 and the Cardinals are five back at 77-71. The Nationals will most likely be playing one of these teams come October. Let’s examine each matchup.

Chicago Cubs

To many, the drop off of the Cubs has seemed odd. How could a team that outscored their opponents by 252 runs suddenly be fighting to win their division? Defending champions however, have not won their division since the 2009 Phillies. The Cubs lost certain key members of their team over the winter as Dexter Fowler and Jason Hammel both departed to St. Louis and Kansas City respectively.

Their rotation struggled for the first half of the year, as they pitched to a 4.66 ERA. In order to fortify this weakness, their front office traded a king’s ransom to the Chicago White Sox for 28-year-old left hander Jose Quintana. That move, coupled with a second half resurgence from Jake Arrieta, have led to a staff ERA of 3.25.

The Cubs also traded for left handed relief pitcher and catcher Alex Avila from the Tigers, fortifying a bullpen led by Wade Davis and a group of catchers led by the young Wilson Contreras. Their moves have paid off, as they have gotten back first place and are in prime position to do what no defending champ has done in 7 years, win their division.

The Nationals are 4-3 against the Cubs, having won two out of three in the teams’ most recent series. In that series, the Nationals did not have any of their top three pitchers on the mound, instead, they rolled out Tanner Roark, Edwin Jackson, and Erick Fedde, the last one making only his second start in the major leagues. The Nationals also did not have either Jayson Werth or Trea Turner, both of whom have recently returned to the team. On paper and on the diamond, the Nationals are the better team due to their rotation and their dynamic lineup.

Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee has been one of the biggest surprises of the MLB season to this date. While many expected this year to be a rebuilding one for the club, they jumped out to a 50-41 in the first half of the year. Their lineup was dynamic, led by the power threat Eric Thames and by Travis Shaw. Thames has cooled off considerably since his dynamic start in which he batted .345 and slugged an incredible .810 in the first two months of the season, but Shaw has been continued to be an electric player.

Shaw was acquired from the Boston Red Sox for reliever Tyler Thornburg on December 6^th, 2016 and the trade has had one clear winner. Thornburg has not pitched at all this year, as he is out for the season with a (find out injury). On the other hand, Shaw has batted .271 with 30 homeruns and 92 runs batted in. He’s been a force in the middle of the order this year. Orlando Arcia, at the age of 22, has played well for this team at shortstop, with a stat line of .273/.323/407. The Brewers have had a good pitching staff this year, with a 4.03 ERA that ranks 9^th in the MLB. Their rotation is led by the trio of Zach Davies, Jimmy Nelson, and Chase Anderson, who have ERA’s of 3.89, 3.49, and 2.88 respectively. Against the Nationals this year, the Brewers have a record of 4-3. However, in three matchups against Washington, they’ve had a run differential of 0, meaning these are two very evenly matched teams. As far as a playoff matchup, the advantage still goes to the Nationals, as their experience and superior talent will show itself in a five-game series.

St. Louis Cardinals

Since 2000, the Cardinals have been one of the most successful franchises in the MLB, winning two championships and perennially contending each year. However, last year, they missed the playoffs with a record of 86-76 and their start to this season did not inspire confidence that they would rebound from that disappointing campaign as they started the year with a 43-45 record. Since then, they’ve become one of the strongest teams in the league with a 32-23 record. Their rotation is led by the young Carlos Martinez who sports an ERA of 3.33, and the veteran Lance Lynn, with an ERA of 2.94.

In past years, the Cardinals lineup was fortified with stars like Matt Holliday, who is now on the Yankees. Taking their places are Tommy Pham and Kolten Wong, who are batting .306 and .300 respectively. In the bullpen, their closer, Trevor Rosenthal is out for the rest of the year as he will undergo Tommy John surgery on his right elbow and was replaced by Seung-hwan Oh.

This team will bring back memories of the 2012 NLDS to many Nationals fans, however, the Cardinals have been considerably weakened since then, losing many of their best players. This is another series the Nationals should be heavily favored in.

Final Verdict

This is a situation where it’s easy to overthink the matchups. However, in this case, the choice is easy. Chicago is the defending champions. They have recently begun to play really well, and out of the three teams, they have the most proven hitters. Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo are two of the best hitters in the game. The Brewers and the Cardinals don’t have the same talent as the Cubs. Travis Shaw is extremely good, but he may be their best player and that won’t win you a playoff series. Orlando Arcia, while talented is extremely young and has no experience with high leverage situations like the NLDS. Their pitchers are talented but again, they’re youth and inexperience will cause them to wilt under the bright lights of the postseason. The Cardinals don’t have the talent to win a playoff series. Their rotation lost bigtime pieces due to injuries and their lineup is being fortified by players who are punching above their weight class. No matter who they play, the Nationals will be favored. However, the best team for them to play this October is the St. Louis Cardinals.